Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
