A mere two months ago that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
